Report Information

Prof. Chaolong Wang | Huazhong University of Science and Technology

Title: Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan

Reporter: Chaolong Wang

Time(Beijing): 15:30-15:50
Time(Moscow): 9:30-9:50

Zoom address: Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan

Abstract: Vigorous non-pharmaceutical interventions have suppressed the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan, China. We extended the SEIR model to study the transmission dynamics and evaluate the impact of interventions using 32,583 laboratory-confirmed cases from December 8, 2019 till March 8, 2020, accounting for presymptomatic infectiousness, and time-varying ascertainment rates, transmission rates, and population movements. The effective reproduction number R0 dropped from 3.54 (95% credible interval 3.40–3.67) in the early outbreak to 0.28 (0.23–0.33) after full-scale multi-pronged interventions. By projection, the interventions reduced the total infections in Wuhan by 96.0% till March 8. Furthermore, we estimated that 87% infections (lower bound: 53%) were unascertained, potentially including asymptomatic and mild-symptomatic cases. The probability of resurgence was 0.32 and 0.06 based on models with 87% and 53% infections unascertained, respectively, assuming all interventions were lifted after 14 days of no ascertained infections. These results provide important implications for continuing surveillance and interventions to eventually contain the outbreak.